Earthquake forecasting is one of the most ancient skills known to mankind. The first known forecast was made by Pheresydes of Syros about 2500 years ago. He forecasted a strong earthquake by noticing that usually very clean water from wells suddenly became dirty and salty. The earthquake indeed took place two days later, bringing fame to Pheresydes.
Seismology, as a branch of science, was founded in 1755 after the Lisbon earthquake in Portugal. This earthquake caused significant loss of life and destruction, which prompted the scientific community to pursue the truth about earthquakes to prevent similar disasters from happening again. In the aftermath of other devastating earthquakes, such as the Great Japanese Mino-Owari earthquake in 1894, countries like Japan established their seismology organizations to understand earthquakes better and develop measures to mitigate their effects.
In 1923, a devastating earthquake and tsunami took place near Tokyo, resulting in the death of roughly 142,000 people. A Japanese seismologist named K. Imamuri had predicted the earthquake a year earlier, based on the observed seismic quiescence that had lasted for several decades. However, his prediction was ignored at the time. After the event, Japanese seismologists began to take Imamuri’s ideas seriously. They predicted a large Kanto earthquake between 1960-1965, but it turned out to be a false alarm and undermined Imamuri’s model.
In the 1950s, the Chinese government established a ministry to forecast earthquakes, and Chinese seismologists successfully predicted a M7.3 Haicheng earthquake in 1975, saving around 200,000 lives through successful evacuation. However, they failed to predict the next big earthquake in Tangshan near Beijing, which completely destroyed the city and killed nearly 250,000 people.
The Pakfield Experiment in California was an ambitious earthquake prediction project focused on the San Andreas fault near the small town of Parkfield. This site was chosen due to its history of moderate earthquakes occurring approximately every 22 years since 1857. Initiated in 1985 by the US Geological Survey (USGS), the experiment aimed to predict and capture a significant earthquake by 1993, based on the regularity of past quakes and backed by a 95% confidence level prediction. However, the expected earthquake did not occur within the predicted time frame. After the well-prepared Parkfield Experiment failed, it was concluded that earthquake forecasting is impossible, and funding for such research was stopped worldwide.
Finally, the catastrophic 2011 Tohohu earthquake and tsunami raised Oleg Elshin’s interest in this problem, and Terra Seismic was established the following year, on 10 August 2012.